In 2015, British journalist Tim Marshall published Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics. This book breaks the globe into ten regions, analyzing how geographical features like rivers, mountains, and seas influence political decisions, military strategies, and economic development. Tim Marshall is praised for making a complex topic accessible and engaging. However, his book also faces criticism for certain omissions. Critics point out that by focusing solely on geography, Marshall sometimes neglects other significant factors in political decision-making. In any case, it is useful to learn from the ideas in Prisoners of Geography.
Below, there is a summary of the ninth chapter of the book, which focuses on Latin America. You can find all available summaries of this book, or you can read the summary from the previous chapter of the book, by clicking these links.
Latin America’s geography has played a crucial role in shaping its destiny. Unlike the USA, where geography facilitated the rise of a great power, Latin America’s terrain has presented significant challenges. The region’s geography, combined with its historical political missteps, has hindered any country from challenging the dominance of North America.
From the outset, Latin America’s nation states were at a disadvantage. Unlike the USA, where land was distributed to small farmers, Latin America saw the establishment of a system dominated by powerful landowners, which led to widespread inequality. This disparity was exacerbated by the European settlers’ tendency to establish settlements near the coasts, avoiding the mosquito and disease-infested interiors. Consequently, major cities and capitals developed near the coasts, with infrastructure connecting these cities to the coast rather than to each other.
In countries like Peru and Argentina, the capital cities hold more than 30% of the national population, highlighting the centralization of resources and people. The colonial focus on extracting wealth for export continued after independence, with coastal elites neglecting the interior regions. This neglect has left inland areas poorly connected and underdeveloped.
Despite optimistic predictions at the start of the 2010s about a “Latin American decade”, the region’s potential remains largely unfulfilled. Geographic and historical factors continue to impede progress. Mexico, for example, faces natural barriers such as deserts, mountains, and jungles that limit economic growth. Brazil, despite its international presence, struggles with internal connectivity, while Argentina and Chile, rich in natural resources, remain geographically distant from global economic centers like New York and Washington.
Two centuries after the struggle for independence began, Latin American countries still lag behind their North American and European counterparts. The region, including the Caribbean, has a population of over 600 million, yet its combined GDP matches that of France and the UK, which together have about 125 million people. While there has been progress since the days of colonialism and slavery, much work remains.
Latin America extends from the Mexican border with the USA to Tierra del Fuego at the southern tip of South America, spanning 7,000 miles. The continent is flanked by the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean to the east. The lack of natural deep harbors along the coastlines limits trade opportunities.
Central America is characterized by hilly terrain and deep valleys, with the narrowest point being just 120 miles across. The Andes mountain range, the longest continuous chain in the world, runs parallel to the Pacific for 4,500 miles, creating a significant barrier between the western and eastern regions of the continent. The Andes are snow-capped and mostly impassable, cutting off many areas from each other. The highest point in the Western Hemisphere, Aconcagua Mountain, is located here, providing hydroelectric power to several Andean nations. As the land descends, forests and glaciers appear, leading to the Chilean archipelago and the end of the continent. The eastern side of Latin America is dominated by Brazil and the Amazon River, the second-longest river in the world.
The countries of Latin America share a common linguistic heritage, with most speaking Spanish, except for Brazil, where Portuguese is spoken, and French Guiana, where French is the official language. However, this linguistic unity masks significant differences across the continent, which features five distinct climatological regions. The flatlands east of the Andes and the temperate climate of the Southern Cone contrast sharply with the mountains and jungles further north. These differences impact agricultural and construction costs, making the Southern Cone one of the most profitable regions on the continent, whereas Brazil faces challenges in moving goods within its domestic market.
Many scholars and journalists have suggested that Latin America is on the verge of a significant transformation, often describing the continent as being “at a crossroads”. However, from a geographical perspective, it is more accurate to say that Latin America is situated far from the world’s major economic, military, and diplomatic powers. Despite this isolation, the region has a long history of human habitation, with people living south of the Mexico-USA border for approximately 15,000 years. These early inhabitants are believed to have migrated from Russia, crossing the Bering Strait when it was still land. Today, the population is a diverse mix of Europeans, Africans, indigenous tribes, and Mestizos, who are of mixed European and native American descent.
The mix of cultures in Latin America can be traced back to the Treaty of Tordesillas in 1494, where Spain and Portugal divided newly discovered lands outside Europe between them. This treaty, sanctioned by the Pope, led to the colonization of South America, resulting in the decimation of its indigenous populations.
In the early 1800s, independence movements emerged, led by figures like Simón Bolívar of Venezuela and José de San Martín of Argentina. Bolívar, in particular, left a lasting legacy, with Bolivia named in his honor. The ideology linked to Bolívar, often called “Bolivarian”, encompasses anti-colonialist and pro-socialist sentiments, sometimes veering into nationalism as it suits political agendas.
The nineteenth century saw many newly independent Latin American countries fracture due to civil wars and cross-border conflicts. By the century’s end, however, most national borders were established. Brazil, Argentina, and Chile engaged in an expensive naval arms race, hindering their development. Despite ongoing border disputes, the rise of democracy has generally frozen these conflicts or led to diplomatic negotiations.
A particularly bitter conflict is between Bolivia and Chile, stemming from the 1879 War of the Pacific, where Bolivia lost its coastline and has been landlocked since. This loss has severely impacted Bolivia’s economy and exacerbated divisions between its lowland European-descended population and the highland indigenous peoples. Bolivia’s significant natural gas reserves remain untapped for Chile, as national pride and historical grievances prevent a mutually beneficial agreement.
Other long-standing border disputes include Guatemala’s claim over Belize, Chile and Argentina’s disagreement over the Beagle Channel, Venezuela’s claim on part of Guyana, and Ecuador’s historical claims on Peru. The latter has led to multiple border wars, the most recent in 1995, though democracy has since helped ease tensions.
The second half of the twentieth century saw Central and South America embroiled in the Cold War, resulting in coups, military dictatorships, and severe human rights abuses. With the Cold War’s end, many nations moved towards democracy, leading to relatively stable inter-state relations compared to the turbulent twentieth century.
Demographically, Latin America, particularly south of Panama, is sparsely populated in its interior and far south, with populations concentrated along the coasts. This “populated rim” contrasts with the more evenly distributed populations in Central America and Mexico. However, Mexico’s difficult terrain limits its ambitions and foreign policies.
Mexico’s 2,000-mile-long border with the USA, mostly desert, serves as a buffer zone advantageous to the technologically superior Americans. This border poses challenges for illegal entry into the USA, a persistent issue for successive administrations. Historically, the land now known as Texas, California, New Mexico, and Arizona was part of Mexico until the mid-19th century war with the USA, resulting in Mexico ceding half its territory. Despite historical grievances, there is no serious political movement to reclaim these lands, and no pressing border dispute remains.
By mid-21st century, Hispanics are projected to be the largest ethnic group in these former Mexican territories, with many of Mexican origin. While there might be calls for reunification, the disparity in living standards between the USA and Mexico will likely temper such movements. Mexico, struggling to manage its own territory, is not in a position to pursue territorial expansion. Its reliance on the US Navy to secure the Gulf of Mexico highlights its subservient role in bilateral relations.
Economic cooperation exists with private companies from both countries setting up factories near the border to benefit from cheaper labor and transportation costs. However, the harsh environment makes this region a challenging place for human habitation, continuing to act as a passage for many seeking entry into the USA.
Mexico’s geography, dominated by the Sierra Madre mountain ranges, presents significant challenges. The capital, Mexico City, located in the Valley of Mexico, is a mega city with a population of around 20 million. The western highlands and valleys have poor soil and limited river networks for transport, while the eastern slopes, though more fertile, still struggle with rugged terrain.
To the south, Mexico borders Belize and Guatemala. Mexico has no interest in expanding southward into these mountainous areas, which offer little additional profitable land. Instead, Mexico focuses on developing its oil industry and attracting foreign investment. Internal problems, particularly related to drug trafficking driven by American demand, remain significant challenges for the Mexican government.
The Mexican border has long been a hotspot for smuggling, a situation exacerbated in the past two decades by U.S. policies targeting Colombia’s drug trade. President Nixon initiated the “War on Drugs” in the 1970s, a campaign with no clear endpoint. It wasn’t until the early 1990s that the U.S. intensified its efforts against Colombian drug cartels, significantly disrupting air and sea routes into the U.S.
In response, the cartels established land routes through Central America and Mexico, leading Mexican drug gangs to facilitate these routes and produce their own drugs. This multibillion-dollar industry sparked local turf wars, with victorious gangs using their newfound wealth and power to corrupt the Mexican police, military, and political elites.
This situation mirrors the heroin trade in Afghanistan, where local farmers turned to the Taliban when NATO tried to destroy their poppy crops. Similarly, in Mexico, the government’s anti-drug efforts are often undermined at regional levels by entrenched drug lords. The Mexican government has historically struggled to maintain control, and now faces drug cartels with paramilitary wings that rival the state’s military in both firepower and influence.
Despite American pressure, Mexico’s internal drug trade remains strong, with the overland supply route to the U.S. well established and American demand showing no signs of abating. This creates a paradox for Mexico, as the drug trade provides substantial income but also fuels violence and corruption.
Central America’s geography, particularly its narrow landmass, presents unique opportunities. Panama has benefited significantly from the Panama Canal, which links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and has driven economic growth in the region since its opening in 1914. Controlled by Panama since 1999, the canal remains a neutral international waterway, safeguarded by both U.S. and Panamanian navies.
China sees strategic value in Central America’s geography. Despite Panama’s strong ties with the U.S., China is exploring alternatives to ensure its trade routes remain secure. One such project is the Nicaragua Grand Canal, funded by Hong Kong businessman Wang Jing. This ambitious $50 billion project aims to create a canal larger and deeper than the Panama Canal, capable of accommodating bigger ships and potentially Chinese naval vessels.
The Nicaraguan canal project, supported by President Daniel Ortega, promises significant economic benefits, including tens of thousands of jobs and increased revenue for the country. However, it also poses environmental risks, particularly to Lake Nicaragua, Latin America’s largest freshwater lake. The canal will split Nicaragua in two, potentially displacing over 30,000 people and causing dissent among the population.
China’s investment in the Nicaraguan canal is part of a broader strategy to increase its influence in Latin America. For the past two decades, China has been quietly expanding its presence in the region, investing in infrastructure projects and lending large sums to governments in countries like Argentina, Venezuela, and Ecuador. In return, China expects political support in international forums, particularly regarding its territorial claims.
China’s approach to Latin America mirrors its strategy in Africa, focusing on bilateral trade deals that reduce the region’s dependency on the U.S. China has already replaced the U.S. as Brazil’s main trading partner and is likely to do the same in other Latin American countries, gradually shifting the region’s economic alliances.
Latin American countries do not naturally align with the USA, a sentiment rooted in the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which declared Latin America as the USA’s sphere of influence, effectively deterring European colonization. This policy has influenced the region’s dynamics, often leaving Latin Americans skeptical of the outcomes.
In 1904, President Theodore Roosevelt expanded on this doctrine, asserting the USA’s right to intervene in the Western Hemisphere to maintain order. This led to nearly fifty military interventions in Latin America between 1890 and the end of the Cold War. Post-Cold War, the USA’s interference declined, and in 2001, it joined the Inter-American Democratic Charter, promoting democracy in the Americas. Since then, the USA has focused on economic ties, strengthening trade agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA.
This historical backdrop facilitated China’s entry into Latin America, where it now sells or donates arms to several countries, including Uruguay, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, and Peru, and offers military exchanges. China seeks to establish long-term military relationships, particularly with Venezuela, anticipating the post-Bolivarian era. These arms deals, though small-scale, complement China’s soft power initiatives, such as sending its hospital ship, Peace Ark, to the region.
Despite China’s growing influence, Latin America’s geography ensures the USA remains a significant player. Brazil, occupying a third of South America’s landmass, exemplifies this. Although nearly as large as the USA, Brazil lacks the infrastructure to match its economic potential. The Amazon Rainforest presents ecological and agricultural challenges, with deforestation leading to poor soil quality and untenable farming practices.
The River Amazon, while navigable in parts, poses construction challenges due to its muddy banks and surrounding terrain. However, Brazil’s savannah region has become a major agricultural producer, particularly of soybeans, thanks to technological advancements. The country’s traditional agricultural heartland lies in the Southern Cone, shared with Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile. Despite efforts to develop the interior, such as moving the capital to Brasilia, most Brazilians still live near the coast.
Brazil’s coastal cities are often separated by the Grand Escarpment, a steep cliff marking the end of the Brazilian Shield plateau. This geographical feature complicates transportation, requiring routes to traverse the escarpment, further hindered by inadequate roads and railways. Brazil also lacks direct access to the River Plate system, directing trade through Argentina’s Buenos Aires instead of its own ports, which handle less cargo than a single American port like New Orleans.
Brazil’s economic challenges are compounded by its social issues. Approximately 25% of Brazilians live in favelas, making it difficult for the state to achieve widespread prosperity. Despite these obstacles, Brazil aspires to be a rising power, evident in its bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat and its leadership in regional economic alliances like Mercosur and UNASUR. However, these alliances face significant hurdles due to diverse political, economic, and geographical landscapes.
Brazil’s non-confrontational foreign policy fosters good relations with its neighbors, maintaining stability in the region. Despite minor disputes, such as the border issue with Uruguay, and the rivalry with Argentina primarily confined to sports, Brazil avoids military conflicts. The BRICS group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, represents emerging economies but lacks substantial political or geographical cohesion.
Tensions between Brazil and the USA surfaced in 2013 when the NSA spied on Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, leading to her canceling a state visit to Washington. The USA’s reluctance to apologize highlighted its irritation at China’s growing trade relations with Brazil. Brazil’s decision to purchase Swedish fighter jets over American ones was influenced by this diplomatic row. Nonetheless, Brazil and the USA have partially mended their state-to-state relationship, although not at the highest levels. Brazil’s approach remains non-confrontational, contrasting with Venezuela’s aggressive stance under President Chavez.
Ultimately, while Brazil is recognized as a rising power, it acknowledges that its influence will not rival that of the USA.
Argentina has the potential to become a First World country, arguably more so than Brazil due to its high-quality land. Although it may not become the primary regional power, a role destined for Brazil, Argentina’s geography gives it a significant advantage. If the country manages its economy well, it could achieve a standard of living comparable to European nations.
In the nineteenth century, Argentina’s military victories over Brazil and Paraguay secured control of the fertile agricultural regions of the Rio de la Plata. This gave Argentina a strategic and economic edge that persists today. However, Argentina has not always maximized its potential. A century ago, it was one of the world’s richest countries but has since declined due to economic mismanagement, social inequality, a weak education system, frequent coups, and inconsistent economic policies.
Despite these challenges, Argentina has significant untapped resources, such as the Vaca Muerta shale formation in Patagonia, which could meet its energy needs for the next 150 years. However, exploiting these resources requires substantial foreign investment, which Argentina struggles to attract due to its investment-unfriendly reputation.
Argentina’s territorial dispute with Britain over the Falkland Islands, known as Las Malvinas in Argentina, remains a contentious issue. The 1982 Argentine invasion of the islands, followed by a swift British military response, ended in Argentina’s defeat and the fall of its dictatorship. Today, the likelihood of another invasion is slim due to Argentina’s democratic status and the strong British military presence on the islands.
Diplomatically, Argentina continues to assert its claims over the Falklands. It has warned that oil companies drilling in the Falklands will be barred from exploiting the Vaca Muerta shale fields and has passed laws threatening penalties for unauthorized exploration of the Falklands’ continental shelf. This has deterred many oil companies, though British firms remain involved despite the harsh environmental conditions of the South Atlantic.
You can read the summary of the next chapter of the book by clicking this link.
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