Following many warnings by Western intelligence agencies, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, under the pretext of “denazifying” the country and protecting ethnic Russians from a “genocide”. Not only have Ukrainians vehemently denied these accusations, but they have also mounted a fierce resistance against Russia. Meanwhile, the United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Russia and have been shipping both humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. Unlike the occupation of Crimea in 2014, the current conflict is marked by more intense fighting between the combatants and stronger responses by Western nations. This suggests that the parties involved have considerably different interests and are not willing to make concessions. Therefore, a protracted conflict seems to take place, to the detriment of international stability.
Even though Vladimir Putin has criticized the presence of “Nazis” within the Ukrainian government and has vowed to protect Slavs in the Donbas region, he seems to preach to the converted. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine is likely a response to the expansion of NATO and the European Union, and a way to strengthen Russia’s geopolitical standing. Since 2014, the Russians control the Port of Sevastopol and thus have unimpeded access to a warm-water port. However, Crimean infrastructure remains inextricably linked to the rest of Ukraine — notably, a water canal is controlled by the Kyiv regime, which has been glad to let the occupied peninsula endure water shortages. By retaliating against the whole of Ukraine, Russia may extend its grip on the territory and pressure the enemy government into not joining Western institutions that are viewed with suspicion.
Since the attack on Crimea, nevertheless, there has been an upsurge in Ukrainian nationalism. Most recently, the inspiring leadership of Volodymyr Zelensky and war stories such as soldiers insulting enemy sailors have contributed to reinforce this sentiment. In addition, the resistance against Russia is not only in the sphere of ideas, but also in concrete actions. The Ukrainian Army and the Territorial Defenses have acquired significant combat experience while fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk. They have been able to thwart Russian advances in most fronts and, in the meantime, the arrival of new weapons shipments has renewed their hopes of winning the conflict. As the war progresses, Ukrainian nationalism tends to increase, hence either discouraging the adversaries from prolonging the attack or encouraging them to mount attacks that are even more vicious.
To the United States and to its European allies, it is inadmissible to let Russia dictate the geopolitical developments in its vicinity, lest the security of NATO countries be disturbed. Nevertheless, the allied countries have varying viewpoints, and thus adopt differing policies with regard to the war. The Americans see the containment of Russia as necessary to war China to stay away from Taiwan and they have idle production capacity in the military-industrial complex and in the energy sector. Consequently, they have been eager to sanction Russians and send arms to Ukraine. On the other hand, the Europeans have to withstand waves of refugees and they depend upon Russia’s oil and natural gas reserves. For these reasons, they have been reluctant to raise tensions with the Kremlin. This posture may change as Ukrainians garner international support and some states wean themselves off Russian energy sources.
The current invasion of Ukraine by Russia has mobilized several countries against this heinous disregard for the principles of the United Nations Charter. In the opinion of Russia, proper control over Crimea is non-negotiable and Ukraine must never get close to the West. Ukrainians have been fending off for themselves, even though foreign aid has been essential to their war efforts. Finally, NATO countries are firmly against the hostilities, despite the fact that their actual reactions have been somewhat different. None of the players in this dispute appear ready to abdicate their main interests for the sake of a negotiated settlement. Therefore, at least for now, peace seems elusive and the war will apparently persist for a long time.
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