Why does China want the South China Sea?

In the realm of geopolitics, few regions have garnered as much attention and intrigue as the South China Sea. Bordered by several Southeast Asian nations and encompassing a maritime expanse of over 1.3 million square miles, this ocean holds a pivotal role in current international relations. For many decades, China has claimed sovereignty over roughly 90% of it — to the detriment of several smaller neighbors. At the heart of the matter lies an intriguing question: Why does China — a populous, powerful and economically successful nation — harbor such a fervent interest in the South China Sea?

Historical claims

Historical records indicate that Chinese mariners were among the first to navigate the waters of the South China Sea. The maritime routes through this sea were part of the ancient Silk Road — a network that connected China to Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, and Africa. This connection was integral to the exchange of goods, ideas, and cultures, and it also helped to settle Chinese merchants in a slew of other countries. Yet the Qing Dynasty did not profit from the Silk Road to project power overseas, because it was relatively self-sufficient and its ideology discouraged aggressive territorial expansion.

Beginning in 1839, however, China would be gradually compelled to open itself up to the world. At that time, the Opium Wars introduced European Imperialism to the country and marked the onset of a period that came to be known as the “Century of Humiliation”. As the Qing Dynasty faltered and the Western powers imposed their wishes, China momentarily retreated from the world stage — but the glories of its past, including maritime ones, were not forgotten.

More recently, the Chinese Communist Party has made it a priority to demonstrate that the state has “historical rights” to the South China Sea. According to the party line, a nation can claim sovereignty over a territory if it can demonstrate a continuous and long-standing historical connection to it.

One of the key documents often cited is a map from the Ming Dynasty, dating back to the 14th century, which shows a “nine-dash line” encompassing the majority of the South China Sea. This line demarcates the area where China has a long-standing presence, by way of fishing and navigation. The Chinese government, with the help of scholars and intellectuals, asserts that this map is proof that China can legitimately rule over its bordering sea.

Economic interests

Although the ancient Silk Road ceased to be active several centuries ago, the shipping lanes in the South China Sea are increasingly important. International trade is the lifeblood of the modern Chinese economy, that exports competitive and technologically-advanced goods. About a third of the world’s shipping takes place within the South China Sea, yet the waters are not controlled by any single state. This puts China at the mercy of other countries and of their willingness to allow the liberty of navigation. That is why enforcing supremacy over the sea is paramount to preventing disruptions to the flow of trade.

Another critical aspect of the South China Sea is its abundance in fisheries. It is one of the world’s most important fishing grounds, accounting for around 12% of the total fishing catch. China, with its vast population and growing middle class, has a voracious appetite for seafood. In addition, this sector is a vital source of employment and income for millions of people. Most recently, overfishing in its nearby waters has led China to expand its fishing operations into the contested regions of the South China Sea, exacerbating tensions with its neighbors.

Finally, there have been sea disputes rooted in the region’s potential for oil and natural gas exploration. While estimates vary, many experts believe that the region contains significant reserves. In 2016, for instance, the US government believed there were 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas available — enough to supply China for a long time.

Today, state companies such as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) already have deepwater drilling projects in operation — both within China’s exclusive economic zone and within areas that are contested. Controlling the South China Sea reduce the country’s dependence on foreign energy supplies, what is crucial for its energy security.

Strategic interests

Besides having enormous economic potential, the South China Sea is crucial to China’s military defense. It serves as a buffer zone between the country and the Pacific Ocean, securing important parts of the coast — such as Hong Kong and the major industrial hubs of Guangdong and Shenzen. Were China to engage in a conflict over the status of Taiwan, for instance, it would be very beneficial to have a secure southern flank, isolating the Taiwanese Navy from the rest of the Pacific.

The military component of Chinese policy towards its adjacent waters is more than clear when taking into account the “artificial islands” that China has been building. These islands, built on top of reefs and submerged ocean features, serve multiple purposes. They help to bolster China’s territorial claims by physically marking its presence in the region, and they also serve as military outposts, equipped with runways, ports, and other facilities.

It is certainly possible to use these islands for mere defensive purposes, by policing the shipping lanes, ensuring the legality of fishing expeditions, and preventing other global powers from setting a foothold in the South China Sea.

However, neighboring countries — such as Vietnam, Camboja, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines — fear the potential for Chinese offensives against their waters and their interests in the high seas. Indeed, it is not uncommon to hear about Chinese warships intimidating, or even attacking, other countries’ fishing boats. Sometimes, these warships perform dangerous maneuvers even against other countries’ Navy vessels, building up tension and resentment.

In 2016, following two years of judicial procedures, an arbitral tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines, in a maritime dispute against China. The judges concluded that Chinese historical claims to sovereignty over the South China Sea are unfounded and inadmissible, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) — the treaty that currently regulates the seas of the world. Nevertheless, China has persistently rejected this binding ruling and has continued its military build-up in the South China Sea.

Conclusion

China’s claims in the South China Sea draw upon ancient maritime routes, historical documents, and concepts of sovereignty. These are the justifications that are used to account for the current interest in securing control over an area that has enormous economic potential and that is key to both defending China and projecting its power. Tensions flare up, however, because other countries also want to exploit their share of the sea.

Along with the status of Taiwan, the geopolitics of the South China Sea is one of the issues that can potentially lead to a large-scale conflict in the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, much attention must be devoted to tracking the military movements in the region and making sure countries have a way to de-escalate their disputes. Over the vast expanse of the sea, eventual skirmishes can provoke a spiral of retaliations between countries, but the unwillingness to compromise should not be the reason for engaging in another full-scale war.