The Geopolitics of China: Tibet, Xinjiang, South China Sea

In 2015, British journalist Tim Marshall published Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics. This book breaks the globe into ten regions, analyzing how geographical features like rivers, mountains, and seas influence political decisions, military strategies, and economic development. Tim Marshall is praised for making a complex topic accessible and engaging. However, his book also faces criticism for certain omissions. Critics point out that by focusing solely on geography, Marshall sometimes neglects other significant factors in political decision-making. In any case, it is useful to learn from the ideas in Prisoners of Geography.

Below, there is a summary of the second chapter of the book, which focuses on China. You can find all available summaries of this book at the links below:

• Chapter 1 (Russia)
• Chapter 2 (China)
• Chapter 3 (United States)
• Chapter 4 (Western Europe)
• Chapter 5 (Africa)
• Chapter 6 (Middle East)

Short Summary

• China has traditionally been a land power, expanding its territory in the North China Plain as a form of defending itself against external threats.
• Following the modernization of the economy in the late 20th century, China became an economic giant and a rising military power.
• China has sparsely-populated regions, like Tibet, and its government strives to occupy them and integrate them to the country’s infrastructure.
• China has regions that are rife with tensions, like Xinjiang, because certain groups long for independence. Its government has the explicit goal of asserting control over such problematic regions, even by repressive means.
• The Chinese state bureaucracy believes that the collective good outweighs the individual good, and that is why it is reluctant to accept democracy.
• China is currently building up its Navy, which is key to rival that of the United States and to secure the country’s ambitions in the South China Sea.
• However, economic issues or slowdowns may prevent the Chinese from maintaining their status of a global power.

Full Summary

In October 2006, a startling naval encounter occurred in the East China Sea. The USS Kitty Hawk, a massive US aircraft carrier, and its accompanying warships were unexpectedly approached by a Chinese Song-class attack submarine. This incident was a clear demonstration of China’s growing naval capabilities and a bold statement of its presence in the region.

China’s historical focus has been predominantly terrestrial due to its vast landmass and proximity to key trading partners. However, this incident marked a significant shift in its approach, signaling a newfound maritime assertiveness. For thousands of years, China, primarily a land power, hadn’t seen the need for having a strong naval presence. Its people — primarily the Han ethnic group who make up over 90% of the population — have historically lived in the fertile North China Plain, a region that fostered the rise of ancient Chinese civilization.

This plain, also known as the heartland of China, has been the cradle of Chinese civilization for around 4,000 years. It’s a densely populated region, home to about a billion people, despite being only half the size of the U.S. This region was part of early Chinese states, like that of the Shang dynasty, and has been the agricultural, cultural, and political center of China. The Yellow River, flowing through it, has been both a blessing and a curse due to its frequent flooding. In spite of its challenges, it has been as crucial to China as the Nile has been to Egypt.

Throughout history, China’s approach to security has been one of expanding itself as a form of defending itself. This strategy was employed to create buffer zones against non-Han regions, particularly against the nomadic warriors of Mongolia. Over time, China’s borders expanded significantly. The construction of the Great Wall under the Qin dynasty and the creation of the Grand Canal during the Sui dynasty are testaments to these efforts.

China’s identity has been shaped by a long history of dealing with external threats, from the Mongol invasions to the humiliation suffered at the hands of European imperial powers and Japan in the 19th and 20th centuries. These experiences have deeply influenced China’s national psyche and its foreign policy.

The post-World War II era in China was marked by internal strife, with nationalist and communist forces vying for the control of the country. Eventually, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, the Communist Party emerged victorious. Mao’s regime focused on consolidating Chinese power and extending Chinese influence, including through the annexation of Tibet. Mao’s successors, most notably Deng Xiaoping, shifted focus towards economic development under a unique model of ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’.

This economic transformation has made China a global trading power and a rising military force. The nation’s growth has been uneven, with coastal regions prospering while inland areas lag behind. China’s recent naval assertiveness is part of the story of a nation that has been continuously evolving and asserting itself on the global stage.

China’s modern borders reflect its status as a secure, powerful nation, strategically reinforced by its geographical landscape. The North, with its vast Gobi Desert, forms a natural defensive barrier against potential military threats. It also serves as a gateway for economic expansion, particularly in mining and trade with Mongolia, a trend that means an increasing Han Chinese presence in the region.

To the East, the border with Russia stretches to the Pacific Ocean. This area, characterized by its sparse population and its challenging terrain, offers little incentive for military engagements. Instead, China’s relationship with Russia is increasingly defined by economic ties, with China emerging as the dominant partner, especially in light of recent global events like the crisis in Ukraine.

China’s southern borders with Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar present a mix of challenges and opportunities. Despite historical tensions and territorial disputes with Vietnam, it is seen as a neighbor that is easy to deal with, because it is likely to seek diplomatic solutions for controversies. The rugged terrains of Laos and Myanmar, located in the transition to the towering Himalayas, have natural barriers that complicate both trade and military maneuvers.

Tibet’s significance to China is multidimensional, involving both a geopolitical strategy and an interest in natural resources. Not only does controlling Tibet provide a buffer zone against India, but it also secures access to vital river water sources. This strategic importance outweighs movements for Tibetan independence and international criticisms about their repression. China views Western commentary on Tibet, whether from celebrities or politicians, through a perspective of national security rather than human rights.

China’s infrastructural developments in Tibet, like the construction of railways and roads, prove its commitment to integrate the region. These projects, deemed impossible by many, have been successfully completed, connecting Tibet to the rest of China. This has facilitated the influx of Han Chinese into the region, altering its demographic balance, much like in other border regions such as Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang.

The increase in the Han population in these areas, including Tibet, has led to social tensions. The 2008 riots in the city of Lhasa are an example of this. Despite these challenges, the Chinese government continues its policies in Tibet, balancing modernization and economic development with stringent social control measures. Within China’s national strategy, there is a complex interplay of ethnic dynamics, national security concerns, and the relentless drive for the development and the integration of the country.

China’s growing population, mainly concentrated in its densely populated heartland, is seeking expansion opportunities. This expansion is reminiscent of the westward movement in American history, in which railways played a crucial role in the settlement and the development of the people. In China, modern transportation networks are facilitating the migration of Han Chinese into regions like Tibet, mirroring this historical pattern.

China’s borders extend from Pakistan to Kazakhstan, encompassing a variety of terrains including mountainous areas and part of the ancient Silk Route. The border with Kazakhstan, although theoretically a weak spot in terms of defense, poses little threat due to its distance from the center of China and the lack of a significant military threat from neighboring countries.

The Xinjiang region, with its native Muslim Uighur population, remains a critical area for China due to its strategic location and its resources, including oil and nuclear test sites. Despite historical attempts at independence and ongoing ethnic tensions, Beijing has maintained firm control over the region. This control is enforced through a combination of repression, economic investment, and migration of Han Chinese into the region. Cities like Shihezi are predominantly Han, reflecting this demographic shift.

Despite international advocacy for the rights of Uighurs who live in Xinjiang, China’s position on this matter remains unyielding. The government views separatist movements as a combination of nationalist and Islamist elements, and has concerns about escalating violence. In the face of this, China’s stance is clear: maintaining control over Xinjiang and Tibet is crucial for national security, trade, and economic stability.

China’s reluctance to accept democracy and individual rights stems from prioritizing unity and economic progress over democratic principles. The Chinese leaderships’ perspective is influenced by a collective-focused culture, distinct from Western individualism. This difference in societal values reflects China’s historical context and the leaders’ belief in prioritizing the collective good.

The implicit social contract between the Chinese government and its people is based on economic growth and stability in exchange for adherence to government policies. However, challenges like corruption, inefficiency, and environmental issues related to agriculture pose risks to this arrangement. The increasing number of protests in China reflects underlying tensions that could escalate if economic growth falters or if environmental challenges impact food production.

On the international stage, China’s economic strategy involves manufacturing goods at low costs for global consumption. This strategy, however, faces challenges from rising labor costs and competition from other countries. Additionally, the need for raw materials and the vulnerability of supply chains underscore the importance of a strong naval presence to safeguard China’s economic interests. This multifaceted approach highlights China’s complex balance of domestic stability, economic growth, and global trade.

China, historically known for its sea voyages like Admiral Zheng He’s expeditions, is now focusing on building a formidable Blue Water navy, capable of operating in all oceans. This strategic shift aims to challenge the dominance of the US navy, although it’s a long-term goal expected to take several decades. In the meantime, China’s expanding naval presence is likely to create tensions, especially with the United States, in the contested waters near the Chinese territory.

China’s naval activities and the development of terrestrial anti-ship missile systems are part of a broader strategy to assert its control over the China Seas and reduce the maneuvering space for the navies of the US and its allies. The deployment of these military resources, in addition to China’s growing space program, demonstrates its intention to monitor and potentially counter US movements in the region.

The control of the ‘First Island Chain’, which includes several disputed territories, is fundamental to China’s maritime strategy. The ‘Nine Dash Line’, expanded to include Taiwan, outlines China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, a region vital for international shipping lanes. Control over these areas is critical for China’s national pride and geopolitical strategy. The potential to blockade these passageways in wartime underscores the importance of these routes for China’s security.

Japan consists in a significant obstacle to China’s maritime ambitions. Chinese vessels must navigate Japanese and Russian territorial waters to access the Pacific, a challenge heightened by territorial disputes, such as that over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Japan’s military presence, including in Okinawa, serves as a stark reminder to China of the challenges it faces in asserting its naval power in the region.

Taiwan, another critical point in China’s maritime strategy, is seen as a breakaway province by Beijing and a key ally by Washington. The complex relationship between China, Taiwan, and the US is further complicated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which commits the US to Taiwan’s defense in certain scenarios. China’s approach towards Taiwan combines hard power with soft power tactics, aiming for a peaceful reintegration while preparing for potential conflict.

China’s ambitions extend to securing access to the Indian Ocean, vital for its energy needs. Navigating the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, which are strategic, involves dealing with multiple nations, many of which are aligned with the US. The region is fraught with territorial disputes, with several countries laying claim to parts of the sea, making the area a hotbed of potential conflict.

To ensure access to trade routes and resources, China is employing a combination of diplomacy and naval expansion. The aim is to influence Southeast Asian countries and limit their relationships with the US. This strategy involves asserting territorial claims, as evidenced by China’s maps and aggressive naval patrols.

Geopolitical writer Robert Kaplan likens China’s strategy in the South China Sea to the US’s approach to the Caribbean in the early 20th century. Just as the US sought to dominate the waters surrounding its borders, China is now pursuing a similar goal in her neighboring waters, marking a significant shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.

China’s ambition to become a two-ocean power, spanning both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, involves significant investments in deep-water ports across several countries, including Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These investments serve multiple purposes: fostering good relations, creating potential naval bases for future use, and establishing direct trade links.

Particularly in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, China’s strategy is to secure its energy supply lines. This is evident in the construction of natural gas and oil pipelines from Myanmar’s west coast to south-west China, aiming to reduce dependence on the Strait of Malacca, a critical chokepoint for China’s energy imports. The geopolitical significance of Myanmar in this context has drawn attention from other global powers, which are also trying to establish stronger ties with Myanmar to counterbalance China’s influence.

China’s global reach extends beyond maritime strategy. Its investments in infrastructure projects like ports in Kenya, railways in Angola, and a hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia are part of its broader effort to secure resources, particularly minerals and precious metals from Africa. This global presence of Chinese companies and workers lays the groundwork for the eventual expansion of China’s military influence.

Despite its ambitions, China faces challenges in becoming a truly global military power. For instance, the logistical difficulties experienced during the 2008 Sichuan earthquake response highlight the current limitations in China’s ability to rapidly project forces and equipment overseas. However, this capability is expected to improve over time.

China’s approach to global diplomacy and economic issues is not heavily influenced by human rights considerations. Instead, its focus is on securing its borders, expanding its influence beyond the First Island Chain, and engaging with confidence in global affairs. Avoiding major conflicts with powers like Japan or the USA is crucial for China to keep rising.

The future of China as a global power is subject to both immense potential and significant risks. Economic downturns, such as a depression similar to that of the 1930s, could severely impact China due to its deep integration with the global economy. A decline in global demand could lead to mass unemployment in China, potentially resulting in unprecedented social unrest, especially in densely populated urban areas. China’s vast population presents both an opportunity for growth and a formidable challenge in maintaining stability and continuing its ascent as a global power.